张掖盆地地下水硝酸盐污染与人体健康风险评价     

盛丹睿  温小虎  冯起  武君  司建华  吴敏 《中国沙漠》2019,39(5):37-44

地下水是张掖盆地的重要水资源，其硝酸盐污染尚未得到足够重视。对张掖盆地2004、2015年地下水硝酸盐浓度进行了系统分析，并采用美国环境保护署（USEPA）推荐的健康风险评价模型评估了地下水硝酸盐的健康风险。结果表明：自2004年以来张掖盆地地下水硝酸盐污染日趋严重。2015年硝酸盐浓度最高已达到283.32 mg·L^-1，17.61%的采样点硝酸盐氮浓度超过GB5749-2006《生活饮用水卫生标准》中饮用地下水限量值（20 mg·L^-1）。研究区人群经皮肤接触途径摄入硝酸盐的健康风险在可接受水平，而饮水摄入硝酸盐的健康风险较高，总风险中饮水途径引起健康风险的贡献率占99.40%，远大于皮肤接触途径。儿童经饮水摄入和皮肤接触两种途径的健康风险均显著高于成人，分别为成人的1.544倍和1.039倍。32.39%的采样点地下水硝酸盐对儿童的健康风险超出了可接受水平，14.79%的采样点地下水硝酸盐对成人的健康风险不可接受。甘州区城区、临泽县北部边缘及高台县城区周围硝酸盐浓度最高，这些区域内所有人群都面临硝酸盐引发的高健康风险，其余区域硝酸盐引发的健康风险相对较低。  相似文献   

On the correction of spectra by a displacement reduction factor in direct displacement-based seismic design and assessment     

Gian Michele Calvi 《地震工程与结构动力学》2019,48(6):678-685

The application of some design and assessment approaches, such as the direct displacement-based design (DDBD) and the capacity spectrum methods, requires the modification of elastic design spectra by some displacement reduction factor, to account for the appropriate energy dissipation capacity of different structures. While several equations to correlate dissipation and hysteresis cycles are available, once the displacement reduction factor has been obtained, the correction of the spectra is operated reducing the displacement demand accordingly and conserving the period of vibration at each point. This procedure is here discussed and proved to be conceptually inappropriate, because the spectral acceleration rather than the period should be kept at each point. The application of this alternative procedure may result in increased shear strength demand in design and in larger required displacement capacity for the same level of strength in assessment, if all other factors are not modified. However, the calibration of the reduction factors applied in DDBD has been extensive, and the method has proved to be effective in predicting displacement demands consistent with those resulting from refined nonlinear time history analysis; therefore, a possible introduction of the proposed correction will require equally extensive studies and possibly compensating corrections in the calculation of the equivalent damping. On the contrary, an appropriate calibration of the factors to be used in the application of the “capacity spectrum” method is still being developed, and the consideration of a constant acceleration may facilitate the derivation of effective equations.  相似文献   

高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性建模分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

吴俊  廖炜  王涛 《地震工程学报》2018,40(4):833-840

在高强度地震环境下,建筑施工场点易发生危险,传统方法运用AHP算法对建筑施工场点的危险性进行分析,但未考虑抗震约束,存在分析效果差的弊端。因此,提出一种高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性建模分析方法。首先采用TOPSIS方法得到地震风险评估指标,构建风险评估指标的物元分析模型,基于AHP-熵权法的组合赋权获取地震风险评估指标的综合权重。然后通过贝叶斯网络来推导高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性参数,运用地震等级的划分标准和推算方法,依据建筑施工场点危险性评估准则和接受原则APLARP,利用物元分析模型中不同危险节点的致因关系和综合权重构建施工场点风险评估模型,完成对高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性的建模分析。实验结果表明,所设计模型可准确分析高强度地震下建筑施工场点的危险性,能够确保整体施工的安全性,具有重要的应用价值。  相似文献   

Damage assessment for submarine photoelectric composite cable under anchor impact     

《Applied Ocean Research》2018

The impact of dropped anchor on submarine photoelectric composite cables may possibly cause electrical faults, i.e. electricity and optical signal transmission failure. In order to study the impact capacity and structural impact failure mechanism, a test setup is designed originally to examine the structural and functional integrity. A detailed finite element model (FEM) is created, considering material nonlinearity and component interaction. A parametric analysis has been performed to predict the deformation of components and impact forces, under different impact velocities and collision directions. Relationships between the armor layer indentation rate and that of internal power and optical units are achieved. The impact deformation of internal entities can be evaluated intuitively by armor layer indentation. The proposed experimental and numerical methods are well correlated, suitable to assess the impact capacity of subsea power cables and assist the protection design of subsea power cables in engineering.  相似文献   

耦合土地利用回归与人口加权模型的PM2.5暴露风险评估     

邹雨轩  吴志峰  曹峥 《地球信息科学学报》2019,21(7):1018-1028

PM_2.5已成为人群健康的重要威胁之一,科学精准的暴露评估是PM_2.5风险防控的前提,为提升PM_2.5暴露精准评估,本文利用土地利用数据、道路数据、气象数据等构建PM_2.5土地利用回归反演模型,实现了2013年12月1日-2014年2月8日（冬季）广佛都市区PM_2.5时空动态演变监测,在此基础上将PM_2.5反演结果与人口密度数据耦合,分别从PM_2.5污染浓度与人口加权PM_2.5浓度2个方面,评估广佛都市区PM_2.5污染暴露风险。研究结果表明：① 土地利用回归模型能够较好的反映研究区域内PM_2.5的空间分布特征,R²大于0.78;② 2013年12月1日-2014年2月8日,广佛都市区PM_2.5浓度平均值呈现波动变化趋势,研究时段内,最高平均浓度为97.91 μg/m³ （12月29日-1月11日）,最低平均浓度为53.40 μg/m³ （1月26日-2月8日）,全时段PM_2.5浓度超WHO健康标准的面积占比达99.8%;③ 广佛都市区PM_2.5的空间分布具有异质性规律,其高值区分别位于广州市天河区、越秀区、番禺区北部、花都区北部及佛山市禅城区、南海区中部、三水区中部,低值区主要位于广州市白云区、番禺区东南部及佛山市顺德区南部。人口加权暴露风险存在2个高值中心,分别位于广州市和佛山市的主城区;④ 耦合人口加权模型前后,广佛都市区PM_2.5暴露风险高风险区空间分布发生变化,未考虑人口加权模型时,广佛深高值区较为分散,主要位于南海区、天河区、越秀区、禅城区,考虑人口加权模型后,高值区更加集中于广州市和佛山市的主城区。  相似文献   

基于VSD模型的铁山港湾红树林生态系统脆弱性初步评价   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李小维  黄子眉  陈剑锋  王欣  韦江玲 《热带海洋学报》2018,37(2):47-54

基于脆弱性域图 (vulnerability scoping diagram, VSD)评价模型, 从暴露程度、敏感性、适应能力3个方面构建了红树林生态系统脆弱性评价指标体系。采用改进的综合指数法和模糊综合评价法, 重新定义脆弱性分级标准, 定量评价了铁山港湾红树林生态系统在1989年、2003年和2014年3个年份的脆弱性水平。结果显示, 铁山港湾红树林生态系统在3个年份的脆弱性水平值分别为0.145、0.255、0.334, 呈现增加趋势。首先, 铁山港湾红树林生态系统面临的暴露程度不断增大, 主要胁迫因子为滩涂围垦面积、废水排放量; 其次, 生态系统的敏感性增强, 主要敏感因子是海洋生物质量综合指数、底栖生物和潮间带生物多样性指数; 第三, 生态系统的适应能力略有增加, 总体上较弱。  相似文献   

Population abundance and seasonal migration patterns indicated by commercial catch-per-unit-effort of hakes (Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus) in the northern Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem     

JN Kathena  D Yemane  N Bahamon  T Jansen 《African Journal of Marine Science》2018,40(2):197-209

We developed generalised additive models (GAMs) to estimate standardised time-series of population abundance indices for assessment purposes and to infer ecological and behavioural information on northern Benguela hakes, Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus, using haul-by-haul commercial trawl catch-rate data as proxies for hake densities. The modelling indicated that individual ship identifiers should be used rather than general vessel characteristics, such as vessel size. The final models explained 79% and 68% of the variability in the commercial catch rates of M. capensis and M. paradoxus, respectively. The spatial density patterns were consistent and confirmed existing knowledge about these species in the northern Benguela system. Furthermore, seasonal migration patterns were described for the first time and were found to correspond to the known spawning areas and seasons for M. capensis and M. paradoxus. Spatial density patterns were validated using the geostatistical modelling results of fisheries-independent trawl survey data. Improved understanding of the relationships between fleet dynamics and fish movement can be achieved by taking into consideration the present catch-rate model and spatial and seasonal distribution maps. We conclude that the yearly standardised CPUE time-series are problematic as proxies for total stock abundance because of spatial coverage issues. Consequently, such CPUE data should not be used for stock-size assessments and fisheries advice concerning northern Benguela hakes until this is solved. We generally recommend the exclusion of standardised CPUE time-series from stock assessments when important and changing parts of the stock distribution cannot be targeted by the fishery, such as due to closed areas or seasons.  相似文献   

济南东部岩溶水有机污染健康风险评价          下载免费PDF全文

张海林  林广奇  马河宽  刘文 《山东国土资源》2018,34(11)

近年来,济南岩溶水有机污染越来越突出,为了探究济南岩溶水有机污染对居民健康造成的影响,保障饮用水安全,该文在系统分析研究区水文地质条件的基础上,采用USEPA推荐的健康风险评价模型,根据实际采样测试数据,分析评价了济南东部3处岩溶水井点的有机污染对其范围内暴露人群造成的健康风险。结果表明:检出的主要有机污染物为三氯甲烷、四氯化碳、三氯乙烯、四氯乙烯。3个水井的有机污染非致癌风险未超过限值1,在可接受的范围内,四氯化碳的非致癌风险所占比例最大,为89.85%; 3个采样点有机污染致癌风险,超出了其可接受水平的最小限制10-6,但均未超出可接受的致癌风险的最大限制10-4,风险指数均在10-6~5.0×10-5之间,应该引起关注,产生致癌风险的主要污染物为三氯乙烯。有机污染非致癌风险和致癌风险的主要暴露途径为呼吸吸入,其次是饮水吸收,皮肤接触暴露途径风险值最小。  相似文献   

基于加权贝叶斯网络的海洋灾害风险评估     

李明  张韧  洪梅 《海洋通报》2018,(2):121-128

全球气候变化背景下,海洋灾害的群发性、难以预见性和灾害链效应日显突出,造成的损失逐年上升,开展海洋灾害的风险评估工作至关重要。针对海洋灾害评估中的不确定问题,本文首先基于风险理论剖析了海洋灾害风险的不确定性特征,构建了灾害评估指标体系;然后基于贝叶斯网络模型,提出针对不确定性灾害评估的风险贝叶斯网络,进而基于主客观定权,构建了加权贝叶斯网络评估模型;最后对我国沿海地区海洋灾害开展评估研究。实验表明,该评估模型有效实现海洋灾害的风险评估,具有实际可操作性。  相似文献   

辽宁省春玉米全育期的气候适宜度及年景评估     

曹永强  齐静威  王菲  李玲慧  路洁 《地理科学》2020,40(7):1210-1220

为评价气候变化对玉米生长的影响，以辽宁省为例选取1969—2018年18个气象站点的逐日实测气象数据，利用模糊数学法建立春玉米气候适宜度评估模型，以地理信息技术为依托，探究春玉米气候适宜度的时空特征，并在此基础上进行玉米气候年景的综合评估。结果表明：① 辽宁省春玉米全生育期内日照、温度、降水适宜度波动幅度较大；然而春玉米种植气候适宜度的空间差异性较弱。② 春玉米各生育期气候适宜度由高到低为：出苗期>开花期>成熟期>播种期。全生育期温度适宜度最高，日照适宜度次之，降水适宜度最低。③ 春玉米播种期、出苗期、开花期和成熟期的气候适宜度最高值分别出现在辽阳、葫芦岛、营口和铁岭。④ 春玉米气候年景准确率达64%，表明该评估方法可以较为准确地反映气候年景。近50 a辽宁省春玉米偏好的年景有4个年份（1971、1979、1993、1998年），较差的有1969年（4.98%）及1973年（5.59%）。  相似文献